Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for CARLOS-15 in Mexico from 11 Jun 2015 15:00 UTC to 13 Jun 2015 21:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for CARLOS-15

in Mexico

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone CARLOS-15 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Mexico
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	167 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (17 Jun 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	167 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	1.5
Overall	167 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

167 km/h Current Max.

Up to 430000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	10 Jun 2015 21:00	138	1.8 million	No people	Mexico
2	11 Jun 2015 03:00	148	1.1 million	No people	Mexico
3	11 Jun 2015 09:00	148	2 thousand	No people	Mexico
4	11 Jun 2015 15:00	138	No people	No people
5	11 Jun 2015 21:00	148	3 thousand	No people	Mexico
6	12 Jun 2015 03:00	138	50 thousand	No people	Mexico
7	12 Jun 2015 09:00	138	5 thousand	No people	Mexico
8	12 Jun 2015 15:00	130	280 thousand	No people	Mexico
9	12 Jun 2015 21:00	130	450 thousand	No people	Mexico
10	13 Jun 2015 03:00	130	1.1 million	No people	Mexico
11	13 Jun 2015 09:00	121	950 thousand	No people	Mexico
12	13 Jun 2015 15:00	138	720 thousand	No people	Mexico
13	13 Jun 2015 21:00	167	2.6 million	430 thousand	Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	10/Jun/2015 21:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	12.4, -98.7
2	11/Jun/2015 03:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	12.9, -99.7
3	11/Jun/2015 09:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	13.1, -100.2
4	11/Jun/2015 15:00	Tropical storm	64	no people	no people	13.6, -100.4
5	11/Jun/2015 21:00	Tropical storm	84	no people	no people	14.1, -100.3
6	12/Jun/2015 03:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	14.5, -100.4
7	12/Jun/2015 09:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	14.7, -100.8
8	12/Jun/2015 15:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	14.7, -100.7
9	12/Jun/2015 21:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	14.7, -100.6
10	13/Jun/2015 03:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	14.8, -100.1
11	13/Jun/2015 09:00	Tropical storm	101	no people	no people	14.8, -100.2
12	13/Jun/2015 15:00	Category 1	121	no people	no people	14.9, -100.2
13	13/Jun/2015 21:00	Category 1	138	no people	19000 people	15.2, -100	Mexico
13	14/Jun/2015 06:00	Category 1	148	no people	500000 people	15.6, -100.4	Mexico
13	14/Jun/2015 18:00	Category 2	167	no people	550000 people	16.1, -101.1	Mexico
13	15/Jun/2015 06:00	Category 2	175	no people	530000 people	16.7, -102	Mexico
13	15/Jun/2015 18:00	Category 2	167	380000 people	1.3 million people	17.3, -103	Mexico
13	16/Jun/2015 18:00	Category 1	121	130000 people	690000 people	19.4, -104.9	Mexico
13	17/Jun/2015 18:00	Tropical storm	84	no people	430000 people	21, -106	Mexico
13	18/Jun/2015 18:00	Tropical storm	64	no people	no people	23, -106.5	Mexico

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Provinces

Country	Region Province
Mexico	Colima
Mexico	Jalisco
Mexico	Michoacan
Mexico	Nayarit

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Manzanillo	Colima	Mexico	City	110000 people
Armería	Colima	Mexico	City	16000 people
Tecomán	Colima	Mexico	City	75000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
La Gloria		34
Playa de Oro International	ZLO	8	Civ.	Paved	Yes	7200
Coahuayana		61

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Manzanillo	MXZLO	Mexico
Chamela		Mexico
El Tabaco		Mexico
Ipala		Mexico

Dams

Reservoir	Dam Name	River	Year
	Cajon de Peda	Tomatlan	1976

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Cuitzmala, Mexico. This height is estimated for 17 Jun 2015 12:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (11 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 28 of 17 Jun 2015 15:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	17 Jun 2015 12:00	Cuitzmala	Mexico	0.2
	17 Jun 2015 08:00	Manzanillo	Mexico	0.2
	17 Jun 2015 11:00	La Manzanilla	Mexico	0.1
	17 Jun 2015 16:00	Chola	Mexico	0.1
	17 Jun 2015 08:00	Santiago	Mexico	0.1
	17 Jun 2015 14:00	Chamela	Mexico	0.1
	17 Jun 2015 09:00	Estrecho	Mexico	0.1
	17 Jun 2015 10:00	Barra de Navidad	Mexico	0.1
	17 Jun 2015 23:00	Ipala	Mexico	0.1
	18 Jun 2015 00:00	Aquiles Serdan	Mexico	0.1
	18 Jun 2015 01:00	Corrales	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.